TI
Taha Iqbal
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60
%
"Will an AI system achieve ≥50% on SWE-Bench Pro Verified by end of 2026, signaling threshold proximity to autonomous recursive self-improvement?"
52
%
Will AI scaling laws continue to hold without a measurable wall through end of 2027?
58
%
Will algorithmic efficiency gains compensate for compute constraints, maintaining effective capability growth above 1,000% annually through 2027?
33
%
Will at least one G7 nation formally adopt mandatory capability evaluation for frontier AI models before deployment by end of 2028?
41
%
Will EU AI Act implementing regulations adopt adaptive frontier-indexed rather than fixed compute thresholds by end of 2027?
47
%
Will interpretability-based deployment auditing tools be technically ready for frontier-scale application by end of 2029?
28
%
Will the US establish a capability monitoring body with institutional independence from AI developers before end of 2028?
52
%
Will SWE-Bench Pro reach 75% for the best available model before end of 2027, signaling proximity to the autonomous AI R&D threshold?
22
%
Will the US establish a coherent grand strategy document specifically addressing advanced AI by end of 2027?
57
%
Will US semiconductor export controls measurably delay China reaching frontier AI training runs by at least 18 months relative to the US?
34
%
Will IC-style structured analytic techniques be formally adopted in at least one national AI oversight framework by 2028?
35
%
Will a system meeting a reasonable definition of AGI be publicly demonstrated by January 1, 2030?
48
%
Will at least 4 G7 countries have binding frontier AI regulations by end of 2026?
38
%
Will mechanistic interpretability research yield a validated causal account of a dangerous behaviour in a frontier model by end of 2027?
58
%
Will a publicly announced AI training run exceed 10^28 FLOP by end of 2027?
11
%
Will an AI-related incident causing more than 1,000 deaths occur before 2028?