GovernanceInstitutional RiskCompute Gov.
American Grand Strategy from the Cold War's End to 9/11
Abstract
Traces US grand strategy from Cold War end through 9/11 as a case of strategic drift
Interpretation
Demonstrates what happens when structural containment logic is abandoned for reactive posture
Governance Implications
Template for long-horizon AI containment doctrine
Forecasting Implications
Strategic drift as a leading indicator of warning failure
Criticisms
Primarily retrospective; limited prescriptive framework for novel threat categories
Hypotheses
"Absence of coherent grand strategy increases catastrophic surprise probability by removing the synthesis function that converts tactical signals into strategic warning"
76%Historical pattern is consistent across Pearl Harbor, 9/11, and Cold War drift periods
Updated May 21, 2026