GovernanceInstitutional RiskCompute Gov.
Technology, Power, and Uncontrolled Great Power Strategic Competition Between China and the United States
Abstract
Analyzes structural drivers of US-China technology rivalry and its strategic implications
Interpretation
Frames semiconductor supply chain control as the primary lever in AI great power competition
Governance Implications
Compute export controls as non-proliferation analog
Forecasting Implications
Supply chain friction as a measurable constraint on China's capability trajectory
Criticisms
Predates the most aggressive US export control regime; some conclusions may be outdated
Hypotheses
"Semiconductor supply chain control is the primary lever for slowing adversarial AI capability trajectories"
76%China's capability friction is measurably hardware-driven; algorithmic talent and capital are less constrained than fabrication access
Updated Jun 1, 2026